Lede Today we got the CPI inflation report. Kathy Jones pointed out that for the first time since June 2020, the 3-month annualized change for both core and headline CPI are below 2%. The BLS’ new measure of real-time new rent inflation fell negative. The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations put the three-year inflation outlook …
Inflation Drops; Real-time Rent Inflation Turns Negative Read More »
Preface (Reminder: Yesterday I penned Jobless Claims Fresh Highs; Manufacturing Fresh Lows.) As of today, we will have a Fed that is on the right side of the market as opposed to in opposition to it. That’s the silver lining. The Fed will cut. Today we received the non farm payrolls (NFP) report and saw what …
Lede I see an elevated risk of recession, but risk of a bad thing doesn’t mean that the bad thing will happen. I think we are unnecessarily being forced to take this risk by the Fed, but we can still escape. Let’s do this. Preface Yesterday the Federal reserve chose not to cut interest rates. …
Jobless Claims Fresh Highs; Manufacturing Fresh Lows Read More »
Lede Today we received the PCE inflation report and it came in at 2.5% YoY, in line with estimates and the lowest reading since February 2021. PCE is, in fact, the measure that the Fed uses to target 2.0% inflation. PCE Price Inflation YoY: 2.5% vs 2.5% consensus and 2.6% prior. The lowest since February …
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Lede Don’t miss out on the rally no one sees coming. Today we got the CPI report and it was spectacular news. CPI MoM came in negative (-0.1%) for the first time since 2020. CPI YoY (3.0%) is at a multi-year low. Core CPI YoY (3.2%) is at a multi-year low. Housing inflation is at a multi-year low. Prices …
7/5/2024 Reminder: The CML Pro quarterly webinar is tomorrow at 11a PT / 2pm ET. You can register here: CML Pro Webinar: 7-6-2024 The webinar will be recorded and automatically emailed; there is is no need to email support. Lede Today, we received the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, providing data on unemployment and various other …
Wage Inflation Lows; Unemployment Rate Highs; Labor dynamics have changed Read More »
Lede Today we received the definitive inflation index called PCE and it’s sub index called Core PCE which excludes the cost of food and energy and all numbers came in line with estimates with each month over month (MoM) and year over year (YoY) measure falling: PCE Price Inflation YoY: 2.6% vs 2.6% consensus and 2.7% prior. …
More Impetus to Cut Rates; PCE Inflation MoM Comes in at Zero Read More »
6/26/2024 Story Today I share a short form video summary of my views on inflation and the employment market as we all await the data for May PCE inflation on Friday. Video: Inflation at target, unemployment rate up, savings rate down, real disposable income growth down, GDP growth down. Transcript Ophir Gottlieb (00:00): There have been a lot of people …
Today we received retail sales data for the month of May and the number came in at 0.1% versus estimates of 0.2% and -0.2% in the prior month. The probability of a 25bps (0.25%) rate cut in Sep FOMC meeting has risen on weaker than expected retail sales, lower CPI, Core CPI, PPI, Core PPI, …