Preface Today we received the non farm payrolls (NFP) report for May. (i) Non farm payrolls beat estimates (ii) Average hourly earnings came in hotter than estimates (iii) The 12-month payroll index has grown 5.4% YoY, which is inline with the 2018 cycle and versus 6%-6.5% last year. (iv) Prime age labor force participation is …
U.S. Exceptionalism as Seen in Employment; What Now? Read More »
Lede Inflation came in a bit softer than expectations while personal spending and real disposable income came in soft as well. The Fed is likely headed for a rate cut this Fall. This all comes after our prior note on May 15th which forecasted much of this data today: CPI in line; Drops for first …
Lede Today we received the heavily followed CPI inflation report and the numbers were in line, if not below, estimates for the first time in several months. This is not the measure that is the Fed’s preferred measure, but it is the measure that gets the headlines. We also received the monthly retail sales number …
CPI in line; Drops for first time in 2024; Consumer weakening Read More »
Lede The non-farm payroll (NFP) report today was pretty close to ideal – a respectable addition of 175,000 jobs and a robust monthly average of around 250,000 jobs, especially noteworthy following strong prior months. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate slightly increased to 3.9% but has now tied the longest streak ever of unemployment below 4% (1960s) in the …
Jobs Report Stellar – Stagflation is Argument Falling Flat Read More »
Preface Today we received the Fed’s preferred inflation measure index, PCE and Core PCE and the numbers were “less bad” than they could have been given yesterday’s Q1 data dump. We had a hint that there would be hotter than expected inflation today when we received the quarterly data for Core PCE yesterday. However, …
4-25-2024 Preface The economic news we received today, at first blush, came in weak on the growth side (GDP) and hot on the inflation side – an insidious elixir that would lead to stagflation if it persisted. Stagflation is an economic condition characterized by slow economic growth, high unemployment, and rising prices. A closer look …
Growth Much Stronger than Headline; Inflation Hot Read More »
Lede Our recent webinar on TradeMachine® was geared towards empowering novice traders with the tools and knowledge necessary to navigate the stock market confidently. Hosted by Jason Hitchings, CTO at Capital Market Labs and the chief architect behind TradeMachine®, the session was both informative and enlightening. Join Jason Hitchings as he explores the basics …
Learning TradeMachine®: A Beginner’s Guide Webinar Read More »
4-10-2024 Preface Today we received the CPI inflation report. While this is not the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, it does inform monetary policy, as we have seen in the past. The month over month (MoM) US Inflation Rate (CPI YoY): 3.5% vs 3.4% consensus and 3.2% prior. US Inflation Rate (CPI MoM): …
CPI Hot; Yields Explode Higher; Rent Lags… Still Read More »
Introduction Understanding Delta is crucial for anyone involved in the trading of options. It helps traders predict how an option’s price will move relative to changes in the underlying asset’s price. This introduction to Delta will explore the importance of Delta in options trading, how it affects the price movement of options, and its …
Introduction to Trading: Your Path to Success Today, we are offering a comprehensive guide that serves as your personal roadmap to trading success. Through this series of videos, we aim to arm you with the critical qualities and insights every trader must embody and understand to thrive in the fast-paced trading environment. Our CEO, …
Mastering the Market: The Guide to Becoming a Successful Trader Read More »